Two SEC West Blue Blood programs will go head-to-head Saturday afternoon in Tuscaloosa, Alabama. The Alabama Crimson Tide is still trying to come to terms with a two-loss regular season, while the Auburn Tigers have rebounded to win back-to-back games after losing six of seven midway through their season. The Tigers may sit at the bottom of the SEC West with a 5-6 record, but this is a passionate domestic rivalry that should see plenty of physicality throughout the matchup.
Dubbed the “Iron Bowl,” Auburn and Alabama are still separated by talent when comparing staff. From the coaching staff to the players, the Crimson Tide will always be a threat under head coach Nick Saban, who won numerous national championships during his tenure at Alabama. The continued presence of four- and five-star recruits is enough to leave you in a rivalry game where the home team is favored by more than three touchdowns, so Saban shouldn’t make this one sweat too much. Despite the seemingly inevitable win to potentially advance and represent the SEC West in the SEC Conference Championship game, LSU handed the Crimson Tide their second loss of the season with a 32-31 home win in Week 9.
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Bryce Young is still playing at a very high level, despite not being a front runner for the Heisman Trophy award that the junior quarterback won in 2021 as a sophomore. Young has a 6-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio for Alabama, and he’s fought back and forth in close losses to Tennessee and LSU, who are among the closest contenders in the SEC. Wins have been more difficult for the Crimson Tide in 2022 as they nearly lost to Texas, Texas A&M and Ole Miss on narrow wins. The defense, which is usually a cornerstone of Saban’s identity, was a little underwhelming, allowing for over 180 rushing yards against LSU and Ole Miss.
Auburn has been downright terrible in its running game, which has turned it into a one-dimensional offense, forced to back away and throw under pressure. Tigers running back tank Bigsby is still the best player on offense as he posted 6.1 YPC and two touchdowns on the ground in a crucial 41-17 home win over Western Kentucky in Week 12. Former Auburn running back Cadillac Williams was the interim head coach and the Tigers won 2-1 under his guidance, but they await their biggest challenge yet with a road trip to Tuscaloosa to end the season in Week 13. Can the Tigers become Bowl-eligible with an unlikely sixth win over Alabama? ? Or will the Crimson Tide roll in a blowout early and often? Here are our tips, predictions and odds for Saturday afternoon’s game between the Auburn Tigers and Alabama Crimson Tide.
Alabama vs. Auburn date, start time and where to watch
- Date: Saturday, November 26th
- playing time: 3:30 p.m. ET
- Where to see: CBS
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Alabama vs Auburn Odds
| team | Moneyline Odds |
|---|---|
| Maroon | +1300 |
| Alabama | -2800 |
The Tigers have little to no chance of winning the Iron Bowl rivalry game outright in 2022. The last time this happened, Auburn won at home 48-45 as a 3.5 point underdog. The Crimson Tide almost blew up the game in 2021, winning 24-22 on the road in Auburn. The Tigers’ odds could be better if they could play the Crimson Tide at home, where they went 5-3. Unfortunately, they have completely lost all three away games this season.
Alabama vs Auburn Point Spread
| team | point distribution |
|---|---|
| Maroon | +22.5 (-110) |
| Alabama | -22.5 (-110) |
In 2021, the Tigers covered as a 20.5-point home underdog, losing 24-22 to Alabama. The Crimson Tide will be fully prepared for them this time in Tuscaloosa. Alabama most recently defeated Auburn 42-13 at home as a -24.5-point favorite, covering the 2020 span. Despite the poor record, Auburn is 2-1 ATS this season. 22.5 points is a lot to lose, especially in a heated state rivalry game. However, Alabama beat Mississippi State 30-6 during its last SEC home game in late October while knocking out Austin Peay 34-0 in Week 12. Alabama takes their talent to another level in front of their home fans.
Alabama vs. Auburn Prediction
Alabama’s only home fights came when Bryce Young was inactive as they narrowly avoided a third loss to Texas A&M. As long as the former Heisman winner stays under the middle, Saban and the Crimson Tide have every reason to be confident against a team that fired their coach mid-season and are rumored to have Deon Sanders and Lane Kiffin as their next collaborators. Auburn has no credible quarterback threat and uses a carousel of mediocre talent to get through games.
Tank Bigsby and Jarquez Hunter have 17 rushing touchdowns combined, while neither has more than two touchdowns in passing attack. If the Tigers fail to establish the run early, they will be well behind the curve for an upset Iron Bowl win. Alabama’s running defense has been playing very well lately, limiting three of his recent opponents to one or less rushing touchdowns while posting a meager 3.1 YPC average. Pass defense is even better for the Crimson Tide, as they haven’t conceded more than 210 passing yards or two touchdowns in four straight games, including the loss to LSU.
Alabama must find a way to lose this football game with the tremendous amount of talent and coaching advantage it possesses. The problem is they tend to start slow and downplay to their level of competition, which Auburn will try to capitalize on with some tricks to get the defense out of position early on. The Tigers’ pass defense is good, limiting Texas A&M and Western Kentucky to under-48 percent completion rates on back-to-back wins while not giving up quick touchdowns during the mini-win streak.
Alabama running back Jahmyr Gibbs will change that stat as he averages 6.5 YPC and over 1,000 scrimmage yards for the Crimson Tide this season. Jase McClellan is the RB2 but just as talented and also holds over 6.0 YPC with versatility as a pass catcher from the backfield. Wide receivers Jermaine Burton and Ja’Corey Brooks are Young’s top threats in passing offense, but from Auburn’s perspective there are too many options to consider.
Only one of the Tigers’ three away losses was greater than 22 points, which happened on Oct. 8 against first-placed Georgia. Alabama has the talent and coaching gap that afflicted Auburn, but they’re playing inspired football under Williams and going into his fourth game as head coach. The Tigers also have bowl eligibility to play while the Crimson Tide have an outside chance to reach the College Football Playoffs as a two-loss team. Considering the stakes and how well Alabama has played at home when it’s perfectly healthy, I like that the Crimson Tide covers Saturday afternoon’s hefty 22.5-point spread as the home favorite in the Iron Bowl.