Alabama vs. UConn Basketball Prediction, Odds, Line, Picks and Preview: Nov. 25

The (#20) Uconn Huskies (6-0) will go head-to-head with the (#18) Alabama Crimson Tide in Friday’s semifinals of the Phil Knight Invitational. UConn dominated in the first round, beating the Oregon Ducks 83-59. Triston Newton, a transfer from East Carolina, scored 23 points and added four rebounds and six assists. Adama Sanogo and Jordan Hawkins, holdovers from last year’s team, also scored in double figures. The Huskies launched it from beyond the arc, hitting 17 of 37 from deep. Grad Transfer Joey Calcaterra hit 75% of his three-pointers.

Alabama vs UConn Betting Odds

team Spread over under money line
Alabama Crimson Tide -1.5 0148.5 -115
UConn Huskies +1.5 u148.5 -105

All lines are provided by BetMGM Sportsbook

Alabama emerged victorious over Michigan State 81-70. Freshman star Brandon Miller lost 24 points and nine rebounds to 57% from three. They doubled “Sparty” in terms of turnover points, scoring 44% from the field. Jahvon Quinerly, a star of last year’s team, had 10 points in 19 minutes. He’s still working his way back from injury but will be a crucial part of the offense going forward.

Shot Quality Tale of the Tape

ShotQuality data has this competition as a one score game. UConn is more balanced while Alabama has the better offense. The Crimson Tide is 8th in the country with a 1.15 adjOFF SQ. They rank in the 90th percentile or better for shot selection and distance, while ranking in the top ten in the country for rim & three rate at 95.3%. UConn is strong on all key defense metrics except for free throw and open three rate which is close to 50%. The Tide has a healthy 40.6 FTR but only a 16.2% open three rate.

Bama’s biggest tendencies in shot type are catch & shoot threes, pick & roll ball screens and finishing on the edge in transition. They are the best in SQ PPP with mid-rangers and off-screen shots. Meanwhile, UConn is the top half-ranked team in the country in terms of SQ PPP. They go well with “Bama” considering they’re great at pick and roll.

The Huskies offense isn’t as explosive as the Tide, but they still have an adjOFF SQ of 1.11. Also, unlike Alabama, UConn does almost everything well on offense. They rank in the 94th percentile or better on shot selection and spacing, while ranking in the top 100 on all other key offensive stats. The Crimson Tide’s defense is in the 1% of shot selection and the rim & three SQ PPP. They also struggle with spacing and FTR, both of which are UConn’s strengths.

Uconn is balanced between half-court sets and runs in transition. Her top SQ PPP shot types are Finishing on the Edge (1.26), Half Court (1.07), and Isolation (1.00). “Bama” is extremely tough against opponents in all of these categories. Their shortcomings come at the edge, something UConn did well, like when they hit 17 threes in their last game.

Alabama vs. UConn Prediction

Everything about the game calls for a toss-up. However, the ShotQuality data is on par with the Vegas lines and leaves little room for error in the prediction. Although Alabama is more athletic and has better offense, UConn has balance and veteran leadership. Alabama is home to a young core and will continue to be a tough contender in the NCAA tournament, but UConn held up well early in the season.

Prediction: UConn +1.5 (-110)

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