James Spann: Warmer pattern ahead; Showers over northern Alabama this morning

James Spann predicts milder temperatures for Alabama from the Alabama NewsCenter on Vimeo.

RADAR CHECK: A band of showers will pass over northern Alabama in the early morning; This rain should have left the state by mid-morning. The sky will be partly sunny this afternoon with highs between 58 and 62 degrees. The average high for Birmingham on November 22nd is 63.REST OF THE WEEK: Wednesday will be dry and mild with a high in the mid to high 60s as the warming trend continues. Clouds will increase on Thanksgiving Day and some rain could move into the state’s western counties by mid to late afternoon. Rain is more likely across the country on Thursday evening. Expect a high Thursday of between 67 and 72 degrees, 5-10 degrees above average.

Friday is looking quite wet, with spells of rain and a possible thunderstorm. There is no risk of severe storms and it will not rain all day. The high will be in the mid 60s.

THE WEEKEND: Forecast confidence on Saturday remains low due to model inconsistencies. An upper low to the west in the southern branch of the jet stream keeps rain over the state for at least part of the day. The reliable European model continues to trend slower, suggesting it could rain for most of the day. Some thunderstorms are possible, but no severe storms are expected at the moment. Saturday’s high will be in the mid 60’s and the rain will end on Saturday evening.

Sunday will be dry and pleasant with highs between 63 and 67 degrees.

NEXT WEEK: An upper ridge will form over the Gulf Coast meaning much of the week will be mild and dry with highs in the 60s. The European global model continues to point to a bout of rain on Wednesday. For at least the next 10 days there are no signs of sub-zero temperatures.IRON BOWL: For Saturday’s big game (Auburn at Alabama, 2:30 p.m. kick-off in Tuscaloosa) we’re going to need rain during the game with temperatures generally in the low 60’s. This remains a low confidence forecast; As the weekend approaches, we will have more clarity. But for now, take the rain gear with you. Rain is also likely in Tuscaloosa on Saturday morning.

TROPICS: All remains calm and tropical storm formation is very unlikely for the remainder of the month. Hurricane season ends in eight days.

ON THIS DAY IN 1992: A total of 45 tornadoes made landfall in the Tennessee and Ohio valleys. Georgia was badly hit by two F4, one F3, and three F2 tornadoes, killing six people and injuring 144. Indiana had 15 tornadoes to set records for a November outbreak and most tornadoes in the entire month of November. One, a multi-vertebrate Type F4, punched a 22-mile path through extreme southeastern Indiana and northern Kentucky. This tornado disproved the myth that tornadoes do not cross rivers, as this devastating tornado crossed the Ohio River twice. Indiana has had 15 tornadoes to set two state records, the largest November tornado outbreak and the most November tornadoes. This outbreak was a major contributor to what would become the US’s biggest-ever November in terms of tornado counts.

13 tornadoes ranging in magnitude from F0 to F2 made landfall in Alabama, with no fatalities and 53 injuries. The tornado that caused the most injuries occurred just outside Sardis City, damaging several buildings and injuring 12 people.

BEACH FORECAST: Click here to view the AlabamaWx Beach Forecast Center page.

For more weather news and information from James Spann and his team, visit AlabamaWx.