Who Will Win Libertarian Vote in Georgia Runoff? | Federal State

“Libertarian voters typically gravitate toward conservative, and thus Republican, candidates when faced with choosing between the two major party candidates,” said Amy Steigerwalt, vice chair of the political science department at Georgia State University. “But the problem is that libertarian votes are a kind of protest vote that signals that none of the big party candidates are any of the voters. It is therefore much more likely that these voters will simply stay at home during the runoff.”

Charles Bullock, a professor of political science at the University of Georgia, said of Libertarian voters, “They will have an impact when they vote, but they’re less likely to vote than people who came out and voted for Walker or Warnock.”

Bullock estimates that up to two-thirds of those 81,278 votes received by Libertarian Oliver could be Republicans who couldn’t bring themselves to vote for Walker.

“I say two-thirds because three times as many people voted for Libertarian in the Senate contest as they voted for Libertarian for governor,” he said. “So these people see themselves as Republicans, but they had serious concerns about Herschel Walker.”

So Brian Kemp was an easy choice for Libertarian governor, and they backed him. Libertarians, who tend to be more conservative, largely disliked Walker and voted for Oliver.

And now that Democrats have been able to retain control of the Senate, Bullock said he felt people who had “parked” their vote with libertarian Oliver would have even less incentive to vote.

One of the voters who voted for Libertarian candidate Oliver over Warnock and Walker in the Nov. 8 race will go to the polls in the runoff. He’s just not sure which candidate will get his vote.

“I’m still looking at both candidates because I haven’t made a decision yet,” said Philip, a staunch Republican voter from Forsyth County who took part in a voter poll conducted by the University of Georgia this fall. He did not want to give his last name. Philip says he voted for the libertarian Oliver because he was concerned about Walker’s suitability for the job.

“It’s easier to judge a candidate when they have some kind of political path,” Philip said. “I have that with Warnock and while there are things he voted for that I wasn’t a fan of, there are other things he did well. I don’t have that with Walker. I will vote anyway.”

Many other voters who cast a ballot for libertarian Oliver say they can’t face voting for either Walker or Warnock, and that should concern Walker’s camp, Steigerwalt said.

“The fear, especially for Walker’s campaign, is that all the people who refused to vote in his race the first time and everyone who cast libertarian votes just won’t show up for the runoff,” Steigerwalt said. “Add to that the traditional decline we’re seeing from general election turnout to runoff, plus evidence that there’s quite a lot of Kemp-Warnock voters in general election, and the signs suggest Walker has a lot of work to do , only to land gaining support from Republican voters concerned about his candidacy.”

Ted Metz, who was the Libertarian nominee for Georgia Secretary of State, said in an email that Georgians who voted for Oliver likely still have strong political differences with both men now in the December 6 runoff are.

“My belief is that people (real people, not phantom voters) who stand to vote do so only if they feel their vote will affect the change they want, or if they make a statement,” Metz wrote.

However, he is certain that the middle will widen, which Boden Walker and Warnock want to control in the runoff.

“What I do know is that the US electorate is not as polarized as it used to be,” Metz wrote.

Is there anything that would make a libertarian vote for Walker or Warnock, maybe a change in their messages in the last two weeks?

Metz is unlikely to have produced a list of libertarian policies for the two camps to join, including “ending the Fed, ending the IRS, ending the DEA, ending the FDA, ending the Department of Education, the EPA, the FBI, the DOJ, and any other agency not listed in Article 1, Section 8 of the Constitution.”

Oliver did not respond to requests for comment, but he did tell Reason, a libertarian magazine, that he wanted to remain involved in the runoff as moderator.

“I will be reaching out to both campaigns to host a forum where they can speak at length with libertarian, independent voters and try to earn their vote if they wish,” Oliver said. “I think it’s still a very open race for this runoff and I think that should really ask both big party candidates to reach out and talk to libertarian voters and their values, because that’s how they’re going to do it win this race.”

Oliver makes no apologies for leading the Senate race to a runoff.

“I wanted to be an honest broker,” Oliver told The Guardian newspaper. “I’m hoping whoever wins this runoff will reach down the aisle a little bit more and actually make some real legislation.”

One question it would be interesting to find an answer to is where the 115,000 voters who cast their ballots for Libertarian Shane Hazel in the 2020 Senate race between Democratic nominee Jon Ossoff and incumbent GOP Senator David Perdue are in the second runoff landed on January 6 years earlier?

Did a significant number choose Ossoff and push him across the finish line? Or did Ossoff win because President Trump poisoned the water for Perdue with claims that the election was rigged?

“It would be awfully hard to find out,” Bullock said.

One thing is for sure. Hazel, who ran for governor this election cycle, will not push the Libertarians toward Walker or Warnock.

“No one likes these guys anymore,” Hazel said after a debate at the Atlanta Press Club while playing disruptor onstage with Kemp and Democratic challenger Stacey Abrams. “They bankrupt America. “Why do I have to go out there and lend my name to someone using violence and coercion?”